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Stop Polling. Start Thinking

(The Harwood Institute for Public Innovation)

Stop Polling. Start Thinking

by Richard C. Harwood
War policy should not be set by opinion polls

WASHINGTON, Sept. 15 - Already the public opinion poll results are stacking up. So now, each day we will hear competing numbers - one telling us how many are dead from the ghastly attacks on America, the other on how willing Americans are to go to war. The first is a tragedy, and the latter a perilously foolish exercise. What America needs is some room to think about recent events, not more polling numbers masquerading as truth.

THE VENERABLE Washington Post put a survey into the field almost immediately after Tuesdayís attack, posting results by 11:24 P.M. With the headline, "Americans Willing to Go to War," the storyís lead was, "The overwhelming majority of Americans are willing to risk war to hunt down and punish terrorist groups."

If polls were about peopleís anger and grief, indeed if they helped us to sort out peopleís competing and even contradictory thoughts, that would be one thing. But the questions being posed are simplistic and overdone. Yet they are being used to gauge public sentiment and our nationís will. This is a mistake.
Consider the Risks

On Tuesday we were struck completely by surprise, and now find ourselves in a suspended state of disbelief. Innocent men, women and children were suddenly taken from us. A large swath of New York City is destroyed. Life is changed.

Trying to gauge peopleís reactions through poll results to these events is dangerous. The results reflect peopleís visceral response to a kind of national trauma. Most of us barely have had time to understand what happened on Tuesday, let alone work through the events and their meaning - to form any kind of considered judgment.

There are tough issues at work here. What is an appropriate response and against whom? What kinds of risks are we willing to accept in ìgoing to warî? What steps might be necessary to take to protect Americans ó such as improving airport security ó and how much inconvenience are we really willing to live with? Why do some people seem to hate America so much? And how much will we ourselves turn to hatred?

All across America this week people have been wrestling with such questions around their kitchen tables, in their workplaces, in the sanctuaries of their faiths. Embedded within these conversations is a host of ideals and values and emotions ó all swirling around, producing deep ambivalence and uncertainty.

In this kind of environment, public opinion gauged through quickie-surveys will change as quickly as events. When deep ambivalence is at work, people need room to think, to feel, to talk, to wonder. We must struggle with what we know ó and, importantly, with what we do not know.
Avoid Simplistic Questions

There is another problem here: simplistic polling questions have a way of framing public debate. They reduce everything to an easy, convenient sound bite. As poll results come in, the news media report on them. Then citizens, politicians, pundits and others all start commenting on the results. More stories are written. We are barraged by more headlines. Such public opinion, when reported, has a funny way of producing its own contagious momentum.

This can stop public conversation before anyone has the opportunity to hear and consider different ideas and perspectives - indeed, before anyone has had much time to weigh the implications and trade-offs of various actions. Instead, the fault-lines in polls start to drive public discussion: "Are you for or against going to war?" Hurry up, you must decide.

Now is not the time to hurry up, but for America to come together as a nation to make sense of these recent events, figure out our next steps, and determine what kinds of trade-offs we are willing to live with. For this to occur, we must act to keep the conversation open, not close it down through superficial polls that suggest a certainty in our views, when in reality uncertainty abounds.
Fighting Unyielding Pressure

In this nation, we have become conditioned to look at polls to tell us something about our very selves. But today, poll results that suggest growing public sentiment to go to war, or to hurriedly take other steps, can produce misplaced pressure on our leaders to act - maybe with the wrong measure, maybe before the time is right.

Our nation must find the courage and humility to make its way through these horrific times. There are many questions we must struggle with. Anger and hurt persist and so too does ambivalence about what to do.

So, for now, it is important for we citizens to continue to talk to one another ó to sort through our emotions, find comfort, and generate hope. For our leaders to inspire stability and demonstrate wisdom. And for our news media to help us make sense of these events and to illuminate different perspectives.

We need some room.

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